Is Betting Better?

Could betting markets predict the future? The evidence shows that the "wisdom of crowds" has been pretty accurate. In finance, they call it "the efficient market." Essentially, this means that, in aggregate, a large crowd (like the global stock market) is likely to be a more accurate future prognosticator than you or even professional managers. Then listeners ask:

  • What are the best investments for young grandchildren?

  • Should dividends be reinvested or paid out?

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