Know You Can’t Know

Markets may feel calm despite geopolitical noise, but uncertainty is the permanent condition of investing—and the price of admission for higher returns. Don and Tom unpack Jason Zweig’s reminder that investors hate uncertainty (tough), discuss the surge in speculation from leveraged ETFs to prediction markets, and explain why “play money” accounts should stay small. They field listener questions on building an investment policy statement, rebalancing without sabotaging returns, simplifying overly complex ETF portfolios, choosing international small-cap exposure, and setting up custodial accounts (with a nod to Roth IRAs for working teens). The core message: take only the risk you need, not the risk your inner con man wants.

0:00 The podcast that never ends; investors hate uncertainty

1:19 Jason Zweig revisits 2008 and the permanence of market uncertainty

3:16 Calm markets, speculative behavior, and the rise of prediction markets

6:00 “Play money” accounts and the danger of confusing gambling with investing

8:18 Take the risk you need—not the risk you want

9:05 Writing down how you feel during downturns

11:51 Listener question: Rebalancing and creating an Investment Policy Statement

17:09 25-year-old portfolio review: Too much complexity, wrong tilts

20:27 International small-cap choice: AVDV vs. AVDS

23:26 Custodial accounts for teens and the Roth IRA opportunity

26:10 RetireMeet 2026 promotion and event details