Hard to Pick
A fast, funny Thanksgiving-weekend show where you and Tom unpack why a tiny handful of stocks drive the S&P’s returns, revisit forgotten winners like Hormel and McDonald’s, explain why “you can’t pick them in advance,” and tie it all back to building global, diversified portfolios. Listener calls cover early-retirement withdrawals with 72(t), whether AVGV should replace AVGE, a Thanksgiving relative obsessed with dividends, and a listener being pitched a 1.24% Fidelity “wealth management” upsell.
0:06 Thanksgiving haze, Manhattans, overeating, and setting up the show
2:24 Magnificent 7 vs S&P 493 and how concentrated returns distort hindsight
4:49 1985’s shock winners: Hormel, Lowe’s (the other one), Franklin Resources
7:41 The 1980–1990 decade: Hormel and McDonald’s huge runs and why none were predictable
8:10 Why you need small, value, and international beyond the S&P 500
10:58 Caller: retiring at 56, 72(t) rules, penalties, and whether IRA vs 401(k) location matters
14:28 Correction: SEPP applies only to the chosen account, not all pre-tax assets
16:36 Travel while you can: knees, age, lie-flat flights, and holiday banter
20:21 Caller: AVGE vs AVGV, value tilts, the overlap, and whether it’s worth the swap
22:49 Why AVGV exists (and why advisors may not need it)
27:35 Thanksgiving email: dividend-obsessed relative critiques VXUS payouts
29:53 What dividends really mean—and don’t—and why payout “stability” is useless
35:49 Voicemail: Fidelity wants 1.24% to “manage” half a 401(k); is it worth it? (No.)